Much of the world is asking what Africa can supply: copper for grids, cobalt and graphite for batteries, minerals for data centres, energy systems and advanced manufacturing. But t
The report indicates that the old commodity bargain is no longer enough
It further notes that much of the world is asking what Africa can supply: copper for grids, cobalt and graphite for batteries, minerals for data centres, energy systems and advanced manufacturing. But the more consequential question is what Africa can build.
In 2022–2024, more than half of the world’s economies still depended heavily on primary commodities, with the highest levels concentrated among vulnerable economies, including many in Africa.
Reliance on raw commodity exports exposes countries to price swings, external shocks and fiscal pressure. Natural wealth can generate export earnings without producing enough industrial transformation.
Processing, services, supplier industries, technology and skills can make economies more diverse and resilient. The central issue is not simply what countries extract, but how much value and capability they retain.
Investment, trade and production networks are being reorganised around AI-related digital infrastructure, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy-transition technologies.
Strategic sectors accounted for 44% of greenfield project values in 2025, up from 16% in 2020. They are shaping where future productive capacity is built and who captures value from the next generation of trade.
Africa is already central to this economy. Yet centrality in supply does not guarantee a central place in production.
If investment reinforces extraction without building local capabilities, the next production map will reproduce the old commodity model: resources in one place, production and value elsewhere.
Critical minerals are where the old commodity story and a new development opportunity meet. They underpin the technologies driving the energy and digital transitions.
Lithium demand alone is projected to grow by more than 350% between 2024 and 2040. But rising demand is not the same as development. What matters is where value is created, where it is retained and who builds the industries around it.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production in 2025. Refining and processing are even more concentrated. Much of the value is created after minerals leave the ground.
Without deliberate action, critical minerals could become the next commodity trap: mineral-rich countries supply the next industrial era while others process, manufacture, innovate and capture the larger gains.
Value addition is not simply a move from mining to processing. It also involves suppliers, services, skills, infrastructure and regional markets. Each country must identify where it can compete and progressively build capabilities.
