Around 77,000 fewer children worldwide received HIV treatment supported by the U.S. in the year to October 2025 than in the previous fiscal year, according to a study.
The report indicates that around 77,000 fewer children worldwide received HIV treatment supported by the U.S. in the year to October 2025 than in the previous fiscal year, according to a study that found declines after the Trump administration’s cuts and changes to foreign aid.
It further notes that the study refers only to U.S.-supported care, and some of the children may have received treatment through national governments or other donors.
The analysis of U.S. government data found U.S.-supported pediatric HIV treatment fell by around 14% year-on-year, although the researchers stated more detailed country-level data were needed to assess the full impact.
“These are signals, not a verdict. But children cannot wait,” stated Kenneth Ngure, professor of global health at Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology and a co-author of the study, presented at the AIDS 2026 conference in Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday.
Other studies, including by UNAIDS, have also shown gaps in the HIV response since the cuts.
The U.S. State Department stated it had not reviewed the study in detail but its methodology was flawed.
They stated the decline was a sign of the success of the program, as fewer children were getting infected with HIV, and the numbers on treatment had been going down for four years.
But the authors stated that the declines last year were steeper than this historical trend in five countries: Uganda, Haiti, Zambia, South Africa and Kenya.
To reach their conclusions, Ngure and team analyzed data provided by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the international U.S. HIV program. They found a decline in U.S.-supported pediatric treatment in 20 of 21 countries analyzed.
Other agencies and national governments may have stepped in to keep children on treatment – a stated aim of the U.S – and the decline in coverage is also slightly lower if “central support”, or U.S. funding for national or sub-national level work, rather than at clinics, is included: around 55,000 fewer children were reached last year under that metric.
The countries were chosen because they all had more than 2,000 children receiving PEPFAR-supported HIV treatment, the team said.
South Africa saw the largest absolute decline of around 30,000 fewer supported children, or 45%, followed by Zimbabwe, Kenya and Malawi.
South Africa, the country which has the most people living with HIV in the world, already funds the majority of its response. The U.S. has stated it will no longer support efforts in the country.
Health advocate Susan Wairimu Metta, who works with HIV-affected communities in Kisumu West, Kenya – the Kenyan area with the highest HIV prevalence rates outside Nairobi – stated she recognised the picture painted by the new study.
